The lost people in the middle of the Road

My third and final Political Post for 2018

   Here are my Frist and Second Final Political post for 2018: First Second

   History is not on the conservative side with the upcoming mid-terms elections. Most of the American voting public are not policy wonks like me. They operate on a more more shallow level (meaning no disrespect), which is why most politicians talk with their fingers in the air to check the direction of the wind.  Not all of them imagine themselves as the Captain of the Ship America. They are just passengers and have no wish to chart the course.  When they boarded the ship (Voted), they though they knew the direction they wanted to go.  Then they left it up to the Captain to chart the course and hopefully not hit any icebergs.

   We policy wonks make a mistake when we think that everyone has a passion for policy. Most do not. I have always thought that most people held to the original idea that the least government is the best government.  That only works when everyone adheres to the basic founding safeguards in our original formation.  There are those who do not share a common foundation. Julius Caesar (via Shakespeare) called them "Lean and Hungry."

   One of my Email correspondents who would normally be considered as a very conservative thinker summed it up in a short email last night prior to the 2018 State of the Union Speech. It reminded me that not everyone gets deep into the weeds regarding POLICY over PERSONALITY. Here is his summation of President Trump:

   Well, I don't plan on watching it and ruining my evening  Most likely it will be me, me, me, and I am not interested in that SOB.  He in my opinion is crooked as sin and he can't seem to keep his mouth shut.  He has been successful in alienating all of our adversaries.  He is not even welcome in Great Britain  and they have said as much so.  It's no wonder his poll numbers are low.  He has not demonstrated any respect for the highest office in the land.  His constant Tweet's only shows how ignorant he really is.  Most of the time, a poor lack of judgment and common sense. Because he has apparently plenty of money, that does not impress me at all.   Then too, he is always "sticking his foot in his mouth" and most intelligent  people learn when to keep their mouth shut before they enter the first grade.  He should have learned this many year's ago.  I have voted  in every election since Dwight Eisenhower so I have witnessed many "fruit baskets" but my friend, Trump takes the "Cake." I wish that I would feel good about addressing him as Mr. President, but in reality he is only number 45. (Tater)

   One could argue with his analysis, but his statement reflects the thoughts of many people I encounter that would otherwise be very supportive of President Trump's policies. Sometimes the messenger obscures the message.  The point is that regardless of how the State of the Union speech was delivered, it is lost on those who don't plan to watch. They will get their update from the various summaries offered which may or may not be an accurate reflection of the tone and content of the speech.

   The fact is that most people in America are not crusaders for freedom or politically active. They are for the most part average people who want to pursue their own goals without government interference. The edges of both party make the mistake of thinking that their position is held by the majority. It is not.  The highway is wide (perhaps as wide as a six land divided highway) not always straight. One of my old workmates used to say you could run into the ditch on both sides of the road. He was a country boy and his reference was about a two-lane road.  Today I would say that analysis does not hold true. The road has more than a left and right ditch. It is a divided highway with a ditch on either side of the barrier which creates a danger even for those who are travelling in the same direction as you are.

   Traditionally the mid-term elections sway away from the party in power.  The network and cable pundit's analysis is always taken as some shift in policy by the American people. I have always believed that is nothing more than an intermission in a very boring 4 act play where some will leave the theater, some will stay, and only the players on the stage will think it is a very profound performance. The best example of that is the decline in audience for Hollywood and Music Award shows, which have turned into nothing more than political mini-conventions.

   Here is an analysis from one of my go to sources regarding fact-based analysis of elections. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball:

"This analysis of elections since Trump won the presidency suggests that caution is in order when looking ahead to November. Essentially, there is a data point for everyone. If you want a Democratic wave, you can focus on the special elections and findings such as the Democratic improvement in the Midwest. If you want the GOP to hold its ground as best it can as the presidential party in a midterm, you will focus on the aggregate, where Republicans are not underperforming Trump in the two-party vote to the same degree that Democrats underperformed Obama in 2013. As the November waiting game continues, we will gather and analyze more data points from upcoming special elections to see if they offer additional insights."   Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

   For the record, I did not watch the speech, I have not spent much time listening to summaries and analysis of the speech. Fortunately, the transcript is available for review and I did TIVO (Tape or Copy) the speech so I could evaluate the performance if I choose.  I prefer to let the content age a bit before I review. Then, hopefully I can place it in the context without running any of the four ditches in the modern road of life.