Good Morning Everyone,
Debby continues to live up to its reputation of being a difficult storm to forecast, and we appreciate everyone's patience as we navigate these changes in real time. This morning's update included a slight shift south and west of the official track, which resulted in a significant reduction in the forecasted rainfall for our area.
Storm Track Summary
Debby is forecasted to re-enter the Atlantic near Savannah this afternoon where it is expected to remain between Savannah and Charleston for the next 36 to 48 hours. Debby is still expected to grow in size and regain its strength but remain a tropical storm during this time. However, forecast models continue to vary on the exact track Debby will take after Wednesday afternoon. The official track from the National Hurricane Center now shows a second landfall near Charleston around 8am Thursday morning. Debby is then expected to travel inland towards Charlotte by noon Friday, before turning northeast, crossing our state and entering Virgina near Martinsville.
Forecasted Impacts For Beaufort County
As mentioned in previous updates, the forecasted impacts are track specific and subject to change in future updates as we work gain confidence is Debby's actual path of travel. However, Debby is still forecasted to bring several days of impacts to our area. This morning's update has been summarized below.
Rain
- Areas south and west of Old Ford, Blounts Creek, Edward and Aurora are now forecasted to receive 8 to 10 inches of rain over the next 5 days, with areas north and east receiving 6 to 8.
- Our rain chances are expected to increase around sunrise Wednesday, with a steady rain expected through Friday afternoon.
- Our heaviest rains are expected to occur during the day Thursday.
- A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for our area through Friday.
- Remember, changes to this track and / or its timing could impact future forecasted totals.
Winds
- Our winds are currently forecasted to increase tomorrow morning and remain elevated through Friday afternoon, with most area forecasted experience sustained winds between 15 and 20 with gust 25 to 30. These wind conditions are detailed below.
- Wednesday: East winds sustained around 10 mph, with frequent gust between 15 and 20 mph.
- Thursday: East winds that will transition to the Southeast; sustained between 15 and 20 mph with frequent gust up to 25 mph.
- Friday: Southeast winds that will transition to the South in the afternoon; sustained between 15 and 20 mph with frequent gust up to 25.
- South winds are now expected calm around sunset Friday.
Storm Surge
- More confidence in Debby's track beyond Wednesday is needed before an official storm surge forecast is issued from the National Hurricane Center. However, we do anticipate 2 +/- feet of inundation for most of our waterways based on the latest forecasted wind conditions. Again, our impacts are track specific and subject to change with future updates.
Remember, the changes between last night's update and this morning's is the result of 60 +/- mile shift south and west in Debby's centerline track. These subtle changes can result in significant changes to our forecasted conditions and serves as a reminder of how important it is to monitor these approaching storms and maintain a state of readiness.
Links to various forecast graphics and key messages from the National Hurricane Center can be found using the following link.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/094934.shtml?cone#contents
Please see the email below and attached briefing from the National Weather Service for more information. We will continue to pass along updates as they are received.
Our primary hazards continue to be an abundance of rainfall between Wednesday night and Friday afternoon. This accumulation is expected to cause ponding water along our roadways, making for potentially hazardous driving conditions at times. Saturated grounds in combination with elevated winds are also likely to cause down trees and power outages. We encourage everyone to utilize today and the first half of tomorrow to prepare for this approaching storm. Preparations should include:
- Ensuring that you have enough food and supplies to last into the weekend.
- Have battery operated devices in case you lose power.
- Ensure that outside furniture, décor, etc. are secure.
- Ensure that your outside pets have adequate shelter and are away from standing / rising water.
As always, thank you all for what you do to keep Beaufort County informed, prepared, and safe.
Chris Newkirk
Deputy Director
Beaufort County Emergency Services
1420 Highland Dr
Washington, NC 27889
Office: (252)940-6511
Cell: (252) 378-5352
Hello and good morning,
Please see the attached latest briefing for Tropical Storm Debby.
What has changed:
- Very little; slightly faster storm movement later in the week but the track and intensity forecast remain fairly similar to the last update.
What remains the same:
- Heavy rainfall bringing the threat of flash flooding continues to be the greatest threat for ENC.
- Dangerous rip currents will also be a threat throughout the week into this weekend.
- River flooding may become a threat late in the week and into next week after several days of rainfall.
- Hazardous boating conditions will develop over southern waters today expanding northward tomorrow and continuing through the week.
Uncertainty continues:
- Uncertainty remains with the track and potential additional impacts beyond tomorrow due to weak steering currents in the upper atmosphere.
- Debby is forecast to slowly move just off the Georgia coast through tomorrow and make landfall along the South Carolina coast early on Thursday.
- The amount of time and distance Debby remains off the Southeast coast will determine how much restrengthening occurs and ultimately the level of impacts we may experience from additional hazards, including Wind, Tornado and Storm Surge.
- It is imperative that we keep a keen eye on the official forecast track while Debby meanders over the Atlantic.
Remember you can get the latest information from our local tropical page: https://www.weather.gov/mhx/tropical or the National Hurricane Center.
NWS_Morehead_City_Tropical_Storm_Debby_August_6th_2024_5_AM_Update.pdf
Regards,
NWS Newport/Morehead City
NOAA - National Weather Service
Newport/Morehead City, NC Weather Forecast Office
533 Roberts Rd
Newport, NC 28570
