If a national election were held today in Germany, polls show that the parties of the left-liberal coalition government would suffer substanital losses while the parties of the right make huge gains. The government parties are the traditional left of center Social Democrats, the far left Green Party, and the classical liberal Free Democrats. The vote percantages would be:
CDU / CSU (traditional conservative) 34%
Alternative fur Deutschland (anti-immigration populist right) 24.5%
Social Democrats 12%
Green Party 10.5%
Free Democrats 4.5%
Free Voters (populist anti-immigration right) 4%
Left Party 3%
others 7.5%
Parties have to pass a 5% threshold to win any seats, so the Free Democrats and Left Party would lose all their seats in the Bundestag (parliament), both parties being on downward trends. On the other hand, the Free Voters who have seats in a number of state landtags are polling their highest national numbers ever on a national level and if that trend continues could win their first seats in the federal Bundestag.
Compared to the last national election, the Social Democrats have dropped from 26% to 12%, the Greens from 15% to 10.5%, and the Free Democrats from 11.5% to 4.5%.
On the right, the CDU/CSU has moved from 24% to 34% and Alternativ fur Deutschland from 11.5% to 24.5%
While this is a national poll, state polls in German states voting this year show the AfD running ahead of the CDU and both handily beating all other parties.
https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/farmers-corner-german-minister-and-government/
The Bundestag seats are awarded both for individual constituencies and for party lists based on overall percentage. The map at the link below show poll results by constituency seats with black for CDU, blue for AfD, and red for SDP:
https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-im-bund
The lighter colors are seats that are leaning. Most of the seats in states of the old East Germany are blue and most of those in western Germany black, with only a few scattered seats in cities with shades of red or green, and none of yellow (Free Democrats).
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borderhawk said:
( January 7th, 2024 @ 10:18 pm )
Voters all across Europe are focusing on the threat that illegal immigration poses to their country, and that is driving support for the right, especially the populist nationalit anti-immigration right to new heights. We should soon be seeing that in US election, too.
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