The Dalton-McCrory Spread | Eastern North Carolina Now

   Publisher's note: The article below appeared in John Hood's daily column in his publication, the Carolina Journal, which, because of Author / Publisher Hood, is inextricably linked to the John Locke Foundation.

    RALEIGH     If you are a Republican who think that Pat McCrory is a shoo-in to win the North Carolina governor's race by a landslide, you are mistaken.

    I don't say that because a new Public Policy Polling survey has McCrory up over Democratic nominee Walter Dalton by only six points. I say that because North Carolina is politically competitive.

    Despite the state's woeful economic performance, internal problems at the Democratic Party, and Dalton's depleted war chest, the 2012 election was destined to be competitive on the fundamentals. Democrats have held the governor's office for 20 years. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans, and as recently as 2008 Democrats had a highly successful statewide cycle.

    Commendably, the McCrory campaign hasn't been treating the race as over before it began. They know better. They've been raising money, preparing messages, and prepping for a strenuous fall campaign. Outside groups that support the McCrory cause have been gearing up for a fight, as well. If they thought he was a shoo-in, they'd be putting their resources elsewhere.

    I've actually met more Democrats than Republicans in recent months who saw McCrory has a sure winner. These Democrats were disappointed about having to undergo a competitive primary for governor while McCrory coasted to his party's nomination. And they were depressed about the prospects of uniting the party behind the eventual nominee and raising sufficient funds for the contest.

    They were glum. Now, perhaps, their emotions are swinging back the other way. But just as Republicans shouldn't have been fooling themselves before this week about McCrory being a shoo-in, Democrats shouldn't be fooling themselves now about what the PPP survey really means. Walter Dalton has just been nominated by his party after weeks of television ads. Of course his numbers have spiked. Undecided voters haven't heard from McCrory lately. They soon will - and from conservative groups criticizing Dalton's record. Don't be surprised if the next poll result shows a somewhat-wider McCrory lead.

    And don't jump to conclusions even then. It's a long way to November. There are many unknowns. Is McCrory the favorite? Sure, I'll go along with that. But no further. Political history is full of people who yielded to irrational exuberance or irrational pessimism. Don't join them. The real race hasn't started yet.