Republicans Poised to Gain Congressional Seats in November | Eastern North Carolina Now

   Publisher's note: The author of this fine report, Dan Way, is a contributor to the Carolina Journal, John Hood Publisher.

Redistricting gives GOP a leg up in majority of state's districts

    RALEIGH     Republicans positioned themselves to make substantial gains in North Carolina's congressional delegation following Tuesday's primary.

    The combination of redistricting and primary results could help Republicans carry as many as 10 of the state's 13 congressional seats once the November general election comes around. Currently, Democrats hold a seven-to-six lead in North Carolina's U.S. House delegation.

    "I think it's going to turn out the way many people thought it would because of redistricting," said Jarvis Hall, associate professor of political science at N.C. Central University. "I think it will be anywhere from flipping to what it is now to 10-to-three."
United States Capitol, in early March, 2012: Above.     photo by Stan Deatherage
    Steven Greene, associate professor of political science at N.C. State University, agrees that Republicans are poised for big gains, and that Tuesday's primary results helped their cause.

    "The only thing that could blow their chances is nominating some real extremist that could be a problem in the general election," Greene said. "I'm certainly not aware of that happening in any case."

    Three GOP congressional primaries appear headed to a July 17 runoff, provided the second-place finisher in those primaries requests one. Those are in the 8th, 9th, and 11th districts.

    In the 8th District, leader Richard Hudson could face runner-up Scott Keadle in a runoff. In the 9th District, Robert Pittenger could face Jim Pendergraph in a runoff. In the 11th District, Mark Meadows could face Vance Patterson in a runoff.

    U.S. Reps. Renee Ellmers (2nd District), Walter Jones (3rd District), Howard Coble (6th District), and Patrick McHenry (10th District) all won their GOP primaries.

    Incumbent Democratic U.S. Reps. G.K. Butterfield (1st District), Larry Kissell (8th District), and Mel Watt (12th District) fended off challengers in their primaries.

    In other GOP congressional primaries, Tim D'Annunzio won the 4th District primary, state Sen. David Rouzer won the 7th District primary, and George Holding won the 13th District primary.

    In other Democratic races, Steve Wilkins won the 2nd District primary, Elisabeth Motsinger won the 5th District primary, Patsy Keever won the 10th District primary, Hayden Rogers won the 11th District primary, and Charles Malone won the 13th District primary.

    Jonathan Kappler, research director at the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation, said that Rouzer's victory over Ilario Pantano in the 7th Congressional District GOP primary was a boost for Republican chances of defeating incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre in the fall. He said national Republicans "were kind of sweating bullets" in that primary because they felt that Pantano was less electable than Rouzer.

    Kappler said he expects national Democrats to invest resources in the McIntyre campaign. "I think that they think McIntyre can potentially win even this Republican-leaning seat." One issue that Democrats could come up, Kappler said, is Rouzer's previous work as a lobbyist in Washington.

    The ability of the Democrats to retake the 2nd District could have been harmed by former Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge's decision to run for governor rather than seek the seat he lost two years ago against Elmers.

    "He did pretty well in his old district," Hall noted of Etheridge's performance in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

    In the 8th District, where Hudson and Keadle could be in a runoff, third-place finisher Vernon Robinson's name won't be on the ballot. Robinson, a former Winston-Salem city council member, has lost primary election races in two N.C. congressional districts and a general election attempt in a third.

    "Vernon Robinson losing in a primary is a good sign for the Republican Party," Greene said. He said Robinson is not a good general election candidate because he doesn't have the ability to attract independent voters and may also push some Republican-leaning voters away.

    The winner of that runoff will face Kissell in November in the Republican-leaning district. Kissell could be helped out in his attempt to hold onto his seat by showing his "conservative stripes," Hall said, noting that he has received the endorsement of the National Rifle Association.

    Hall said that come November, he expects the predicted change in the state's congressional delegation because of redistricting.

    "That is that Republicans will get a majority in the North Carolina delegation when it all pans out," Hall said.

    Barry Smith is a contributor to Carolina Journal.