TMc: Book Review ... Predicting the Next President

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Under the cover of Covid, and now in the shadow of the infamous Election Irregularities of that fated 2020 presidential election, with current emerging alleged election fraud in Nevada and Pennsylvania inconveniently slipping into the public discourse, there is proved a colluded ongoing Election Interference in the nomination of the Republican candidate, the likes of which has never occurred in our Constitutional Republic's history, albeit, the question remains: Do you support the plain-sight Election Interference of the Democratic Socialist party, employing its minions in their Propagandistic Media, and their Two Tiered Justice System?

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TMc: Book Review ... Predicting the Next President

Published: Sunday, October 7th, 2018 @ 5:24 am
By: Ted McDonald ( More Entries )

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    The 13 Keys to the White House

    The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.

    Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

    Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

    Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

    Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

    Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

    Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

    Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

    Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

    Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

    Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

    Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

    Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

    Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

    Conclusion: Mr. Lichtman has proven correct in numerous elections and is a proven expert. The 227 pages give follow up election histories to sharpen skills of civics and political science students.

    I will call my advisors about adapting these factors to local contests.

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Comments

Stan Deatherage said:

( October 22nd, 2018 @ 11:51 pm )

It will never happen, and if it does, the Republic is doomed.

Ted McDonald said:

( October 7th, 2018 @ 10:38 am )

Allan L. predicts Popular Vote, not Electoral. There have been five United States presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote including the 1824 election, which was the first U.S. presidential election where the popular vote was recorded.

Bobby Tony said:

( October 7th, 2018 @ 7:57 am )

Good point: Every two years, the election of all House of Representatives is an indication on how the voters think things are going. Of course that presupposes that the voters are informed and alive.

Ted McDonald said:

( October 7th, 2018 @ 7:08 am )

First Key: Mid-term election in Nov. is an important factor.

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