McCrory Makes his Carolina Comeback | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: This article appeared on John Hood's daily column in the Carolina Journal, which, because of Author / Publisher Hood, is linked to the John Locke Foundation.

    North Carolinians have long known that the electoral contest between incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory and challenger Roy Cooper would be expensive, contentious, and competitive. It's the top gubernatorial race in the country. And it's the top political priority for many activists and interest groups here in North Carolina.

    Now, with Election Day fast approaching, the governor's race has taken a turn. According to the polls, Cooper had opened up a sizable lead over McCrory during the late spring and summer. An average of all surveys conducted in July and August gave the Democrat 49 percent of the likely voters, with the Republican incumbent at 44 percent. During September and early October, the race tightened a bit. But this development was all about Cooper's average dipping to 47 percent. McCrory remained at 44 percent.

    Since October 10, however, the governor has surged. An average of the polls taken since then - all by reputable outfits with pollster grades of at least a B+ from the statistics website FiveThirtyEight.com - shows both Cooper and McCrory at 47 percent. More importantly, the spreads have shifted in McCrory's direction from every pollster with two recent surveys to compare.

    To say the governor has momentum is not, of course, to predict he will win. I think the race remains a volatile tossup. But it's still worth considering why McCrory has had the political equivalent of the Carolina Comeback he's been talking about regarding the state's economy.

    First, let's discount the possibility that the gubernatorial candidates are just riding the national waves. At the top of the ticket, the trends are reversed. Hillary Clinton now leads Donald Trump in North Carolina by an average of 46 percent to 43 percent, up from a 44 percent/43 percent Clinton edge in September. In the U.S. Senate race, Richard Burr has maintained a small but fairly consistent lead over Deborah Ross, although it has widened slightly the last couple of weeks.

    Here's my theory of the governor's race to date. Cooper opened up his summer lead thanks to a massive deployment of broadcast ads, digital ads, and adverse news coverage of McCrory on House Bill 2 and voting laws. A few summer polls even had Cooper north of 50 percent of the vote - heartening for any challenger and terrifying to any incumbent.

    But some of that support for Cooper was soft. After Labor Day, as the McCrory campaign and its allies began their own broadcast, digital, and earned-media efforts in earnest, some leaners reverted back to truly undecided. Others began to express less interest in casting a ballot at all, which can have the same effect on the numbers.

    Then in early October, two storms struck. One was an actual weather event, Hurricane Matthew. Gov. McCrory did what he was supposed to do in response to the tragic floods, effectively and consequentially. He also pointed out that because of state Republicans' prudent management of state finances - and against the expressed preference of Roy Cooper - North Carolina had a large rainy-day fund with which to fund state government's share of Hurricane Matthew recovery.

    The other storm was a political one for Cooper. During two televised debates and a series of other exchanges, he was challenged strongly for the first time to explain his questionable management of the state crime lab, his support for Obamacare and other liberal causes, and his incoherent position on state taxes and spending. Across the board, Cooper's responses were weak and unconvincing.

    The electorate clearly has some reservations about McCrory. While polls show voters still largely agree with the governor about protecting privacy in government bathrooms, showers, and locker rooms, many aren't convinced that H.B. 2 was the right tool for the job. But voters also rate McCrory highly for his leadership during Matthew. And most voters who rank the economy as their top voting issue favor McCrory over Cooper, thus illustrating the governor's greatest electoral asset.

    McCrory and Cooper are now neck-and-neck. That's an impressive comeback for an embattled Republican incumbent in the Year of Trump.