Hot Air Envelops Hurricanes | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: The author of this post is Michael Lowrey, who is a contributor for the Carolina Journal, John Hood Publisher.

    RALEIGH     There's a storm building over the Triangle. When this cyclone hits is uncertain, but landfall should be expected.

    What's at issue is whether Raleigh retains its only top-level professional sports team, the Carolina Hurricanes. A lot of public money may be involved, too.

    Hockey traditionally is associated with cold climates. The National Hockey League in recent years has embraced a strategy of locating franchises in milder locations; the idea is to grow the sport's U.S. footprint and its television contract revenue. Raleigh fits nicely with that business plan.

    At its core, this strategy depends on the old concept of "build it and they will come." And in the real word, they, meaning paying customers, haven't always come in sufficient numbers in nontraditional markets.

    That was the case in Atlanta, where the NHL added the expansion Thrashers franchise in 1999. The team lost a lot of money in Georgia and relocated under new ownership in 2011 to Winnipeg, Manitoba.

    The Carolina Hurricanes face a similar problem. Forbes estimates that the Hurricanes have lost money each of the past nine seasons, including an $11.7 million operating loss for the 2014-15 season.

    The Hurricanes ranked next to last in the NHL in attendance last year, selling an average of 12,594 seats for each home date. Things have gotten worse this season, with the Canes drawing only about 11,000 fans a game through November, by far the lowest attendance in the league. By comparison, the median NHL team sells more than 18,000 seats per game, at a higher average ticket price than the Hurricanes charge.

    Part of the problem is that the Hurricanes have been dreadful for nearly a decade now, making the playoffs in only one of the past nine seasons - 2009. That's hard to do in a league in which a majority of teams - 16 of 30 - makes the playoffs each year.

    Even with a better on-ice product, there's little to suggest that the Triangle is fertile ground for a top-tier professional hockey team. In 2006-07, the year after the Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup and when the team should have been its most popular, the Hurricanes ranked only 15th in attendance. It was the only time the team has been in the top half of the NHL in attendance since its 1997 arrival in North Carolina.

    Now the Hurricanes are for sale. And this is when things start to get interesting. Team owner Peter Karmanos and the NHL want the Hurricanes to stay in Raleigh, but something may have to give.

    Maybe a buyer will step forward who really likes hockey, really likes Raleigh, and is willing to absorb a multimillion-dollar operating loss each year. Karmanos has been looking for more than a year and has found no one.

    There are definitely people with money who would buy the Hurricanes and move them to a colder location where the locals love hockey and the team could make money.

    There's also an alternative in between those two extremes. A future owner may come hat in hand seeking a large amount of public money for a new facility to keep the Canes in Raleigh.

    That's the way the game is played these days in all but the largest markets, even by local ownership groups. It's what the Carolina Panthers did in Charlotte three years ago, asking Charlotte to pay for stadium upgrades even though the team owns the stadium. And given its size as a hockey market, Raleigh really doesn't have much leverage if faced with the threat of pay or see the team move.

    Such a situation would create a whirlwind of public debate. But at this stage, it looks like a pretty predictable gale.