GOP Candidates Are Coming | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: This article appeared on John Hood's daily column in the Carolina Journal, which, because of Author / Publisher Hood, is linked to the John Locke Foundation.

    RALEIGH — Is North Carolina ready to be an early stop on the road to the White House?

    Thanks to recent legislation, the Tar Heel State has abandoned its traditionally late presidential primary, held in May. State lawmakers couldn't let Iowa, New Hampshire, and especially South Carolina have all the fun. So they separated North Carolina's presidential contest from the state's other primaries and moved it to the Tuesday after South Carolina's Saturday primary.

    Although some of the dates remain tentative, here's how the nomination battles may unfold according to Josh Putnam, an Appalachian State University political scientist who maintains the FrontloadingHQ blog. Iowa could hold caucuses as early as January 18, 2016. The New Hampshire primary would then follow on Tuesday, January 26.

    A week later, on February 2, four states may hold contests: caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado and primaries in New York and Utah. A few days later, on Saturday the 6th, Nevada will hold its caucuses. Then comes South Carolina on February 13 and North Carolina on February 16.

    Then, after the Michigan caucuses on February 23, there appears to be a massive Super Tuesday shaping up for March 1, with Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Georgia, Virginia, Vermont, and Massachusetts scheduled to hold votes that day. Other states are still considering whether to join in.

    Moving North Carolina's primary forward was intended to increase our clout and attract hordes of candidates, reporters, and other political muckety-mucks to the state. Yes, the latter is supposed to be a feature of the plan. Depending on how many fringe candidates and media bobble-heads end up traipsing around looking for attention, however, North Carolinians may come to see it as a bug.

    The electoral consequences remain difficult to assess right now. On the Democratic side, I tend to the conventional view that if Hillary Clinton wants the nomination, she'll get it. There may be a certain lack of enthusiasm among some Democratic donors and activists who believe a clear break with the past would be better for the party. But it'll be hard to overcome her massive advantages in stature and fundraising. Democrats also enjoyed success in 2008 with a "first in history" presidential campaign. They want to replicate the theme in 2016.

    If that's how things play out, then the real action in North Carolina's primary will be in the GOP race, which remains highly competitive. If Jeb Bush had a different last name, his record as a successful two-term conservative governor of Florida would make him a natural. But just as in the other party, many Republicans believe that harkening back to the past is the wrong fit for 2016. Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and perhaps even Mitt Romney could be in the mix. Other Republican governors such as Mike Pence, John Kasich, and Susanna Martinez are conceivable candidates, too.

    It's not difficult to imagine scenarios in which North Carolina's primary plays a key role in winnowing the GOP field in advance of Super Tuesday. I think that either Bush or Rubio will emerge from the earlier contests as one of the frontrunners. (Given their overlapping bases, it's hard to see both running effective campaigns.) Many Republicans also love Walker, who has now won three statewide contests for governor on a platform of conservative reform. Paul has his own base and will linger in the field as long as he wishes. My guess is that if he's in, there isn't enough space for Cruz to be in for very long.

    Among the states with early contests on the (still tentative) primary calendar, North Carolina is the biggest battleground for the fall — a populous state that voted narrowly for Obama in 2008 and narrowly for Romney in 2012. It's a must-win for Republicans in 2016. Moreover, the Republican primary electorate here includes rural conservatives, suburban moderates, libertarian-leaning young voters, and plenty of transplants from the Northeast and Midwest. It may prove to be a crucial testing ground for the GOP presidential candidates.

    Ready or not, here they come.