NCFEF: Republicans Start General Election Campaign In Good Shape | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: The author of this post is Barry Smith, who is an associate editor for the Carolina Journal, John Hood Publisher.

At post-primary briefing, business-backed group cites demographic, financial edges

    RALEIGH – As the ink begins to dry on vote totals from Tuesday's North Carolina primary, political observers in the Tar Heel state are preparing for what should be one of the most-watched races in the country: the U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, Republican state House Speaker Thom Tillis, and Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh, who won their respective primaries.

    Speakers at a post-primary briefing sponsored by the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation also said that Republicans, with demographic and financial advantages, have put themselves in a position to maintain their majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly.

    "It seems to us very likely that the Republicans remain in control of the state Senate, probably at or about the same numbers as they have now," said Joe Stewart, the organization's executive director.

    Stewart had a similar prediction for the House. "It seems to us at this point very likely that the House also will remain under the control of the Republicans, probably at or about the same numbers as it is now," he said.

    In addition to the demographic advantage that Republicans have in the districts in both chambers, they have a significant fundraising advantage.

    Matt Bales, NCFEF research director, said that Republicans have a cash-on-hand ratio advantage of 5.3 to 1 in the Senate and 2.8 to 1 on the House.

    "It does give the Republicans an upper hand as to financing some of their campaigns, especially their target races across the state," Bales said.

    "It's hard to imagine in some of these more competitive legislative races that there won't be a significant financial advantage for the Republicans just as a result of the total amount that all candidates in all of the caucus operations have," Stewart said. "Starting out with such a competitive advantage is one reason why we feel like that the Republicans will remain in control at about the same numbers."

    Republicans now have a 33-17 partisan advantage over Democrats in the Senate, and a 77-43 advantage in the House.

    As for the U.S. Senate race, political observers feel that North Carolina holds a key to the Republicans' efforts to win control of that chamber. Bales noted that Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, who had campaigned for Greg Brannon in the North Carolina primary, has urged Republicans to close ranks behind Tillis in a show of unity. Bales also noted that nearly one-fourth of Democratic primary voters did not vote for Hagan.

    "It's going to continue to be a high-profile race," Stewart said. "A lot of attention will be focused on it nationally."

    Stewart said the U.S. Senate race should drive voter turnout in the fall, adding he expected that between $50 million and $60 million would be spent by outside groups in that election.

    Other post-primary analysis showed that:

• North Carolina congressional incumbents seeking re-election fared well.
• The Republican contest to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Howard Coble in the 6th District appears headed for a runoff between Phil Berger Jr. and Mark Walker.
• "American Idol" runner-up Clay Aiken appears to have beaten Keith Crisco for the Democratic nomination in the 2nd Congressional District by a razor-thin margin. His prospects against incumbent GOP Rep. Renee Elmers look tough in the solid Republican district.
• Legislative incumbents losing include Democratic Sen. Clark Jenkins in the 3rd District to Erica Smith-Ingram, Democratic Rep. Annie Mobley in the 5th District to Howard Hunter III, Republican Rep. Roger Younts in the 80th District to Sam Watford, and Republican Rep. Robert Brawley in the 95th District to John Fraley.
• An attack ad leveled at Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson may have backfired. She finished first in a three-way primary and will face Superior Court Judge Eric Levinson, a former Court of Appeals judge, in November.