Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer.
2014 may determine the viability of the Republican party for years to come
Mark Binker and Cullen Browder, writing at WRAL.com, have done what we think is a good job of identifying "five big political questions for 2014." We don't necessarily agree with the slant they take but the list is inarguable, we think.
We would suggest that the major issue will be the U. S. Senate campaign, and specifically whether Kay Hagan can retain her seat. We doubt that. We say that because we think, as one of the key supporters of ObamaCare, the albatross is going to be a millstone around Hagan's neck. And while the "split" in the GOP gets a lot of play, the Democrats are even more divided than the GOP. That division is not us vs. them, but more the loss of a large portion of the Blue Base that simply will sit out 2014. Campaign donations within the state already reflect this. Hagan is in trouble and she knows it. But her greatest handicap, other than Obama, is that the N. C. Democrats are leaderless.
The big question is not, as Binker and Browder infer, whether Greg Brannon or Mark Harris will pull enough unaffiliated and TEA party voters, but rather whether whoever wins the Republican Primary can then corral the base and draw the unaffiliated in the General Election. What Binker and Browder do not mention may well be the biggest issue of 2014: Can Tillis survive a run-off? The split in the conservative vote between Harris and Brannon portends that none of them can win the first Primary. If there is a run-off, the advantage will go to the conservative simply because turnout will determine the outcome and the conservative block is more motivated to work to get out their vote than is the Establishment. What that means is that Tillis has a problem of how to spend his war chest. If he blows too much in the first round he may not be able to pull it out in a run-off. But he cannot afford to spend too much in the primaries and be left short in the General Election. Tillis is not well known in Eastern North Carolina, and those who do know him don't like him. It's terribly difficult to win a statewide race in North Carolina without the East. DownEast does not have the votes to steamroll any election, but it has the balance of power when the Piedmont splits their vote. And that's a fact Dan Forest had better consider very seriously.
There is some talk that Dan Forest will come out in support of Harris. That will kill his career in North Carolina politics if he does. Forest won a close race with a weak Democrat simply because the TEA Party supported him. Without that, Linda Coleman would be Lt. Governor. If Forest is seen as betraying those foot soldiers who worked for him then he will be road kill.
But the larger issue here is not just with Forest. The real showdown will come if McCrory and the Establishment comes out openly in favor of Tillis and then how the TEA Party and unaffiliated react to that. The potential for killing the Republican Party actually exists, at least in terms of whether it can continue to be a viable force in statewide elections. The strength of the TEA Party comes in its impact on voter turnout. It cannot elect a candidate on its own. But it can determine whether a Democrat or a Republican wins. Republicans have to have the base's support as well as a substantial portion of the unaffiliated vote. If the TEA Party does not vote and more importantly, if they simple sit out and the Democrats turn out their base then no Republican has much of a chance of winning a statewide race.
The good news in all this for the Democrat Party is that it is looking more and more like the Establishment of the GOP is willing to shoot themselves in the foot by alienating the TEA Party.
Be that as it may, the problem with that reasoning is that it is based on conventional wisdom. And Rule #1 we have said is that the conventional rules don't apply now. There really is no telling what will happen.
North Carolina already operates as if there were already a third party. The potential for a formal third party developing is now greater than at any time in recent years. The same is true at the national level.
We think the greater differences will be made by Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Sarah Palin. We'll lay our prediction out right here: North Carolina will follow the lead of Texas and Kentucky in electing Greg Brannon as an alternative to the "business as usual" Ruling Class. And Mark Harris will discover that Robyn Hayes will be his downfall.
Binker, Browder and most of the Ruling Class do not realize what we think is the most important thing happening across the country...there is a paradigm shift taking place with the American voter. That shift can best be characterized by a simple rule: The old rules no longer apply. People are fed up. They are more fed up with politicians than we can ever recall. That disgust means, we think, that the conventional wisdom no longer provides a meaningful picture of what is happening or what is going to happen. But of this we are sure: There will be surprises such as we have seldom seen in our lifetimes.
Finally, one other point with which we disagree with Binker and Broder. William Barber and the Moral Monday radicals are a null set. Binker and Browder correctly point out that Barber and his Radicals are living off media support. But just as Barack Obama has learned, the Elite Media has lost its punch when it comes to swinging elections at the state and local levels. Barber is close to end of his fifteen minute limit of fame.
With those caveats, we commend WRAL's predictions for 2014.
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